Bitcoin’s meteoric rise over the past few years has been fueled by key players and geopolitical events. Among the most impactful have been Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy who spearheaded one of the largest corporate Bitcoin acquisitions, and Donald Trump’s re-election, which signals a potentially friendlier regulatory environment for crypto in the United States. But what if these two variables were removed?
Would Bitcoin still stand strong, or would it falter under reduced demand and an unfriendly regulatory landscape? Have Michael Saylor and Trump effectively saved Bitcoin’s price? Without their influence, who would be buying?
This post dives into these questions, examining the potential price of Bitcoin in 2024 if Saylor had stayed on the sidelines and the U.S. presidency had shifted to Kamala Harris, bringing more Democratic hostility to the crypto industry.
Michael Saylor: Bitcoin’s Relentless Buyer
Michael Saylor’s bet on Bitcoin began in 2020 when MicroStrategy converted part of its corporate treasury into Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Since then, MicroStrategy has accumulated over 400,000 BTC, representing more than 2% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
This massive acquisition has been a game-changer for Bitcoin:
The Impact of Saylor’s Purchases
- Consistent Demand: MicroStrategy bought Bitcoin regularly, regardless of market conditions. This steady stream of buying activity bolstered confidence and provided liquidity. During bear markets, Saylor’s conviction acted as a psychological anchor for investors.
- Corporate Adoption: Saylor didn’t just buy Bitcoin; he championed it. His high-profile advocacy positioned Bitcoin as “digital gold” and encouraged other corporations to follow suit. While few have matched MicroStrategy’s commitment, Saylor undeniably opened the door for institutions.
- Price Appreciation: Saylor’s billions of dollars in Bitcoin purchases exerted upward pressure on the price. His impact is undeniable—without his buying, Bitcoin prices would have likely suffered deeper corrections and slower recoveries.
What If Saylor Hadn’t Bought?
If Saylor and MicroStrategy had chosen a different path, the implications for Bitcoin would be significant:
- Weaker Institutional Narrative: Bitcoin might have struggled to gain credibility as a reserve asset without Saylor’s public commitment and persistent messaging.
- Reduced Liquidity: The absence of MicroStrategy’s demand could have led to sharper price declines during selloffs, scaring away retail and institutional buyers alike.
- Lower Prices in 2024: With fewer corporate players in the space, Bitcoin’s price would likely hover in the $25,000-$35,000 range today, far below its potential trajectory as we approach the 2024 halving.
Without Saylor, the question remains: who would have stepped up? While retail investors have always driven Bitcoin, institutional buyers bring stability, and Saylor was a trailblazer in this regard.
Trump vs. Harris: The Regulatory Fork in the Road
The political environment in the U.S. has profound implications for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The Biden administration has been widely regarded as hostile toward crypto, with the SEC’s aggressive enforcement actions targeting major players like Coinbase and Binance. Kamala Harris’s presidency would likely have extended this regulatory approach, perpetuating uncertainty.
In contrast, Trump’s return to the White House suggests a more business-friendly climate. While Trump himself has expressed skepticism about Bitcoin, his administration’s economic policies and deregulatory tendencies are viewed as less hostile to innovation and investment.
The Impact of Harris on Bitcoin
Under a Harris presidency, the following outcomes are likely:
- Continued Crackdowns: The SEC’s “regulation by enforcement” approach would persist, driving businesses overseas and stifling U.S.-based innovation.
- Institutional Hesitance: Unclear regulatory guidelines would deter traditional institutions from entering the crypto market, slowing adoption and curbing demand.
- Reduced Global Confidence: U.S. policy plays a significant role in shaping global perceptions of Bitcoin. A hostile stance would ripple through markets, influencing everything from exchange liquidity to venture capital funding.
Trump’s Impact on Bitcoin
While Trump’s personal views on Bitcoin have wavered, a second Trump administration would likely bring:
- Regulatory Clarity: Instead of blanket hostility, Trump’s administration may push for clear guidelines, which would attract institutional players and foster innovation.
- Pro-Business Sentiment: A Trump presidency could encourage investment and entrepreneurship, potentially leading to a friendlier environment for Bitcoin adoption.
- Price Support: With reduced regulatory pressure, Bitcoin’s price could climb higher as U.S. markets re-engage.
Without Saylor and Trump: Who Would Buy Bitcoin?
Bitcoin relies on demand from various sources, but without Saylor and Trump, the buyer landscape becomes murkier:
- Retail Investors: While retail enthusiasm remains strong, retail alone cannot sustain price growth at scale. Retail investors also tend to be more sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, making them less reliable during downturns.
- Institutions: Without Saylor blazing the trail, many institutions might have been reluctant to enter the space. The regulatory uncertainty under a Harris-led administration would exacerbate this reluctance.
- International Markets: Countries like Hong Kong, Dubai, and Singapore have emerged as crypto hubs, attracting investment and innovation. While this helps Bitcoin globally, the absence of U.S.-based demand would still dampen overall momentum.
The Price and Potential of Bitcoin in 2024
Scenario 1: Without Saylor and a Harris Presidency
- Bitcoin might struggle to trade above $25,000-$35,000, weighed down by weak institutional support and a hostile regulatory environment.
- The 2024 halving would likely have a muted effect, as diminished confidence prevents the usual frenzy around reduced supply.
Scenario 2: With Saylor and Trump
- Bitcoin’s price could climb toward $50,000+, propelled by MicroStrategy’s continued buying and a friendlier U.S. regulatory climate.
- The 2024 halving could spark a full-blown bull run, pushing Bitcoin closer to $100,000 or higher as demand surges and supply tightens.
Have Saylor and Trump Saved Bitcoin?
It’s impossible to overstate the importance of Michael Saylor and Trump’s re-election for Bitcoin’s current trajectory. Without Saylor’s unwavering commitment, institutional adoption might still be a distant dream. Similarly, a Harris presidency could have stifled Bitcoin’s growth under the weight of regulatory uncertainty.
While Bitcoin’s decentralized nature ensures its survival, key players and geopolitical conditions have shaped its price and adoption. Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, Bitcoin’s success will continue to depend on a mix of institutional demand, supportive policies, and, perhaps most importantly, the conviction of those willing to bet big on its future.
If nothing else, Saylor and Trump have proven one thing: in the world of Bitcoin, belief can be as powerful as the code itself.
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