In the early days of crypto, layer-1 blockchains like Ethereum were hailed as revolutionary. Ethereum promised a decentralized world where applications could be built without intermediaries, and value could move freely across borders. But fast forward to today, and we’re still searching for that “killer app.” Meanwhile, newer blockchains like Solana, Sui, and Aptos have emerged, raising billions and boasting massive valuations. Yet, there’s still little evidence of broad adoption or a real purpose beyond speculation.
But things are starting to change—slowly. With the rise of US Treasury-backed stablecoins, we may have found one of the first real, scalable use cases for blockchain technology. These stablecoins, backed by the most trusted asset in the world, are creating new financial opportunities. Still, they raise an important question: if these stablecoins can move on any blockchain, then what value do individual blockchains truly have? And what if the future isn’t even on public blockchains at all, but rather on permissioned networks built by big finance and tech giants?
The answer to these questions might reveal the long-term fate of blockchains—and whether they’ll become the rails for an entirely new financial world or just infrastructure that fades into the background.
Are Blockchains the Railways of the 21st Century?
To understand the role of blockchains, let’s turn to history. During the 19th-century railway boom, investors poured money into building railway tracks, believing the tracks themselves would generate immense wealth. But over time, it became clear that the real value lay not in the tracks, but in what moved across them—goods, services, and commerce.
Similarly, blockchains today might just be the infrastructure layer. The true value may come from what is built on top of them—whether that’s tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), decentralized apps (dApps), or financial products like stablecoins and securities.
But unlike railways, blockchains are not scarce. They can be duplicated infinitely, and there are already hundreds of layer-1 blockchains. With stablecoins and tokenized assets able to move across any chain, the long-term value of any individual blockchain becomes questionable.
Stablecoins: The First Real Blockchain Use Case
Stablecoins—especially those backed by U.S. Treasuries—are emerging as one of the first major blockchain applications with clear real-world utility. These digital dollars offer several advantages over traditional financial infrastructure:
- Cross-border payments without traditional banking delays
- Instant settlement and low fees
- Programmability for smart contracts and automation
- Financial inclusion for people without access to traditional banks
It’s a use case that regulators and institutions can get behind because it’s practical, scalable, and rooted in real value (U.S. government debt). But here’s the catch: stablecoins don’t need any particular blockchain to function. They can exist on Ethereum, Solana, Binance Smart Chain, or even a permissioned blockchain built by traditional financial institutions.
VC-Backed Layer-1s: Inflated Valuations or Future Infrastructure?
Newer blockchains like Sui, Aptos, and Solana have raised billions in funding, but their fully diluted market caps often appear wildly inflated relative to their current utility. Many of these projects are venture capital-driven with tokenomics that allow early investors to sell into retail markets, extracting value without creating real, lasting ecosystems.
- Network effects on these chains remain weak compared to Ethereum.
- Adoption is driven largely by speculation, not genuine demand for applications.
- Innovation is often incremental, with newer chains offering minor improvements in speed and scalability rather than true breakthroughs.
Without clear differentiation or unique use cases, many of these chains could become zombie blockchains, surviving only through speculative trading and token incentives.
What Are Blockchains Really For?
If blockchains aren’t money, aren’t a store of value, and aren’t essential for moving stablecoins or tokenized securities, then what are they for? Here are two potential futures:
- Commoditization
Blockchains become interchangeable infrastructure, with no single chain holding lasting value. Applications, real-world assets, and tokenized financial products generate the real value, while blockchains act like cloud providers—necessary, but ultimately replaceable. - Specialization
Some blockchains may carve out niches in specific industries or applications. For example, Ethereum could dominate decentralized finance (DeFi), while Solana focuses on high-frequency trading and NFTs. Even in this scenario, though, the value of the underlying blockchain is likely capped compared to what’s built on top.
Big Finance and Big Tech: The Real Winners?
Here’s where things get even more interesting: big finance and big tech may ultimately control this future.
Why would regulators support permissionless blockchains when permissioned ones offer control, compliance, and security? We’ve already seen early examples of this shift:
- JPMorgan’s Onyx platform for blockchain-based settlement
- BlackRock’s interest in tokenized securities
- Visa and Mastercard exploring blockchain-based payments
These companies have no incentive to rely on public blockchains. They can build private blockchains or consortium networks without tokens, enabling them to tokenize real-world assets (stocks, bonds, real estate) while meeting strict regulatory requirements. CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) will likely follow a similar path, operating on closed networks rather than Ethereum or Solana.
The Future: Commoditization or Consolidation?
So, where does this leave public blockchains like Ethereum, Solana, and Sui? The future could go one of two ways:
- Commoditization – Blockchains become generic infrastructure. Value accrues to the applications, tokenized assets, and financial products, not the blockchains themselves.
- Consolidation – A few blockchains specialize and dominate niches, but even then, their long-term value is limited compared to the dApps and protocols built on top.
Closing Thoughts: Where to Look for Value
We’re in the middle of a major transition. The blockchain boom has brought us exciting innovation, but much of it has yet to find real-world traction. The future may be less about Ethereum vs. Solana and more about how real-world assets move on-chain—and who controls that infrastructure.
Big finance and big tech seem poised to play a central role, while public blockchains might become niche infrastructure for permissionless innovation. Whether they become the backbone of a new financial system or fade into the background remains to be seen.
In the end, we might look back and realize that blockchains were never the destination—they were just the rails. And as with the railway boom, the real wealth will be built by those who know how to move the most valuable goods across those tracks.
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